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Channel 11: Good Times Bad Times
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzCfzQtqCkY Channel 11: Good Times Bad Times DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda takes a look at the state of the markets and macro issues in his recap of February in addition to the economic outlook going forward, a potentially mixed bag summed up by the title of Led Zeppelin’s 1969 song “Good Times Bad Times.” He begins with a look at fixed income and its component segments for the month and year-to-date (equities kept rolling on) (00:33). In his monthly What Looks Cheap report (2:11), Mr. Shinoda looks at Agency MBS and what it will take for the asset class to narrow the gap with corporate bonds while noting the benefits of fixed income in balancing a portfolio. He then turns to interest rates, the outlook for cuts this year and the inflationary picture that could impact moves by the Federal Reserve (5:51). Using past cycles, Mr. Shinoda thinks some market participants got carried away on scheduling and frequency, and he believes a first cut could happen sometime this summer, “which I think makes sense.” After a rundown of equities (11:37), commodities (12:18) and the U.S. dollar (13:18). Mr. Shinoda concludes with a review of economist forecasts for inflation and GDP in 2024 (13:35), including a breakdown of the components of the Leading Economic Index, which has been signaling recession for a long time.
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